The national electricity transmission network has entered what the Institute for Energy Security (IES) describes as a ‘higher-risk zone’, after a decade of rapid demand growth failed to elicit commensurate investment in grid infrastructure.

This structural mismatch, the think tank warns, now threatens energy security, industrial competitiveness and the country’s standing as a regional power exporter.

Analysis of data from the Energy Commission and the Finance Ministry of Ghana, published by the IES, shows that system peak demand has risen from approximately 1,933 megawatts (MW) in 2015 to roughly 4,280 MW in 2025, a more than twofold increase over the period at a sustained annual growth rate of over 8 percent.

The years 2018, 2024, and 2025 each recorded the largest single-year demand increments, at approximately 328 to 334 MW, indicating that consumption pressures are intensifying rather than moderating.

The IES has characterised this demand trajectory as structural in nature, driven by economic expansion, demographic growth, and rising energy access, rather than cyclical or temporary.

“Except for minor slowdowns, demand rises every year, indicating structural, not temporal growth,” the IES said in a statement, suggesting that the demand curve will not self-correct and the investment response must be proportionate and sustained.

While generation capacity has broadly kept pace with consumption growth, the transmission network. the infrastructure responsible for carrying power from generators to end-users, has not.

The IES identified the consequences as congested transmission corridors, rising technical losses, overloaded and ageing equipment, and a reduced capacity to evacuate generated power efficiently to load centres.

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Collectively, these conditions represent a direct threat to grid stability and supply reliability.

The implications extend beyond domestic reliability. Ghana has historically occupied a strategic position as a net electricity exporter within the West African Power Pool, generating revenue and diplomatic leverage through cross-border energy trade.

The IES warned that deteriorating transmission capacity is now constraining that position, limiting Ghana’s ability to compete in the regional power market and forgoing the export revenues that a well-maintained grid would support.

“Without immediate intervention, the transmission network faces heightened risks, including increased frequency of system disturbances, reduced ability to evacuate generated power efficiently, higher operational costs arising from system inefficiencies, and growing constraints on regional electricity trade,” the Institute stated.

The IES recommended a set of coordinated transmission interventions, including the replacement of existing conductors with high-capacity alternatives to reduce overloading and technical losses; the construction of additional high-voltage circuits to strengthen bulk power transfer capacity; the reinforcement of key transmission corridors to eliminate single-point failure vulnerabilities; investments in reactive power compensation to support voltage stability and renewable energy integration; and the replacement of ageing transformers and substation equipment at critical network nodes.

Underpinning all of these is a financing problem as the IES found that the slow pace of transmission investment has been driven primarily by persistent financing constraints that limit the capacity of sector institutions to execute large-scale infrastructure upgrades.

The report called for innovative financing mechanisms, including public-private partnerships, as well as stronger regulatory frameworks capable of supporting cost recovery, improved inter-agency coordination, and the strategic prioritisation of transmission within national energy planning.

The financing dimension is particularly consequential given Ghana’s current fiscal environment. With the country operating under an International Monetary Fund programme and managing legacy energy sector debt obligations, the fiscal headroom for large-scale public transmission investment is limited.

The IES insisted that the sustainability of Ghana’s power sector depends not only on generation capacity but, more critically, on the resilience of its transmission backbone.

“The decisions taken today regarding transmission infrastructure investment will determine the reliability, efficiency, and competitiveness of the power sector for decades to come. Decisive action is not optional, it is imperative,” it noted.