UK-based research firm Fitch Solutions has projected a significant drop in Ghana’s inflation rate, from an average of 22.9% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2025.

This was contained in its latest report.

The forecast attributes the expected decline to easing global oil prices and improved food supply.

According to Fitch Solutions, lower oil prices will enable Ghana’s National Petroleum Authority (NPA) to stabilise or reduce retail fuel costs, thereby alleviating pressure on consumer spending.

"Household consumption will remain the driving force behind economic growth in the coming quarters as inflationary pressures ease. We forecast that inflation will moderate from an average of 22.9% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2025," the report stated.

The report further highlights improved agricultural imports, including wheat and rice, as key factors likely to lower food costs.

Additionally, rising gold prices are expected to strengthen the Bank of Ghana’s reserves, stabilizing the cedi and curbing imported inflation.

These economic developments, according to Fitch, will reduce household budget constraints and support private consumption.

The firm projects that private consumption will grow by 4.0% and contribute 3.2 percentage points to Ghana’s overall economic growth in 2025.

Looking ahead, Fitch anticipates inflation to decline further to an average of 15.2% in 2026, enhancing consumer spending power. It also notes that Ghana's ongoing $3 billion Extended Credit Facility program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to conclude in May 2026.

SP/MA

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