UK-based research and risk advisory firm, Fitch Solutions, has projected Ghana’s economy to remain on a firm growth trajectory, forecasting real GDP growth of 5.0% in 2026 - a marginal increase from the revised 4.9% growth estimated for 2025.

The revision of the 2025 growth outlook from an initial projection of 4.2% comes on the back of stronger-than-expected macroeconomic performance in the first quarter of the year, coupled with improving economic fundamentals.


Fitch’s upgrade follows the release of data by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) on June 6, 2025, which revealed that Ghana’s real GDP growth surged to 5.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from 3.6% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The figure exceeded Fitch’s earlier expectation of 3.5%, prompting the upward revision.

“A firmer exchange rate relative to 2023–24 levels will help anchor inflation, which we expect to average at 13.9%, thereby sustaining solid consumer spending growth,” Fitch noted.

The firm also anticipates that the Bank of Ghana will begin a cycle of interest rate cuts in September 2025, which should gradually filter through the economy, boosting credit growth and supporting recovery in gross fixed capital formation.


Additionally, the expected conclusion of Ghana’s IMF programme in 2026 is likely to result in some fiscal ease, injecting fresh demand into the economy.

SP/VPO

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