Fat Lady Warms Up for Ashanti Finale

The fat lady has not yet sung the finale to Randgold's bid for Ashanti Goldfields, but she may well be in the wings warming up after Ashanti's board today decided to maintain its unanimous backing of AngloGold's bid to take over the company.

Randgold increased its all-scrip offer for Ashanti by 12 percent on Friday, in an effort to change the board's recommendation to accept AngloGold's bid after that company had increased its earlier offer. Ashanti's board, however, was unmoved by Randgold's ploy as an increase in the number of shares it is now offering did not represent an appreciable increase in value.

"In reaffirming its decision, the board of Ashanti has considered carefully the Revised Randgold Proposal as well as, amongst other things, the results of the technical, legal and financial due diligence exercise undertaken on both AngloGold and Randgold and have concluded that the Revised AngloGold Proposal remains in the best interests of Ashanti's stakeholders, including shareholders, employees and the people of Ghana," Ashanti said in a statement.

AngloGold said Friday it would not increase its offer to match, or beat the new Randgold offer.

The Ashanti board's recommendation is likely to be the decisive factor in determining the outcome of the bidding war, which has seen AngloGold pushed hard by its tinier rival. The Ghanaian government, which has remained silent on which way it will vote, has said in the past it would be led by the board's decision. Lonmin, the largest shareholder at around 27 percent, has unequivocally backed AngloGold.

Mark Bristow, Randgold's chief executive, would not comment on the likely outcome of the bid until the government had made its decision on the deal.

On Friday the government's advisers, Soci?t? G?n?rale, tabled its as yet unknown recommendation on the two bids. Market speculation suggests SG has backed AngloGold, although this too has not been confirmed.

Bristow reaffirmed his view that Randgold would fight hard to win the bidding war, but said the company would not overpay for Ashanti.

"I've said we won't blow our brains out for this. Eventually they get decided on and you have to move on. We've done what we can do," said Bristow. He said Ashanti's board had been "very quick on the turn" in recommending the Randgold bid.

The AngloGold bid expires on Friday, although the South African company is likely to extend the offer period until the government has made its decision.

Filling the vacuum

Bristow said Randgold was ready to fill the gap in the gold sector which would be left by Ashanti, should it be acquired by AngloGold.

"There is a huge opportunity for us to present ourselves to the market as the new Ashanti. We can take their place," he said. "We came into this bid believing that Ashanti is undervalued and that is still our view. But this is a free world and people are free to make their own decisions," said Bristow.

The statement is the closest thing to an admission of defeat by the Randgold boss, who has remained steadfastly optimistic of snatching an upset victory against his larger rival, since he first entered the bidding war in August.

But in the increasingly likely event of AngloGold winning the prize, Randgold will not come out of the bid disgraced. Rather, it is likely to capitalise on the massive momentum created by the deluge of publicity its upstart counter bid has caused. For almost 10 weeks, Randgold has featured in mainstream media in both Europe and the US, raising awareness of the company among investors at a time when gold shares and bullion are becoming increasingly in vogue. The heightened investor awareness will stand it in good stead as it looks to follow up the Ashanti bid with a smaller, more digestible acquisition.

Bristow said Randgold would continue to focus on organic growth in the future, although he said he hoped other African juniors would gravitate toward Randgold as a "nucleus for consolidation" in Africa. He said the group would continue to look for acquisition opportunities in the "million-plus ounce category".