The Chief Executive Officer of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), Dr Riverson Oppong, has warned that if the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran persists, consumers could face higher petroleum product prices as global oil markets react to the ongoing conflict.

While he allayed fears of possible fuel shortages on the local market, he stressed that prolonged geopolitical instability would inevitably carry cost implications for domestic consumers.

“The impact on Ghana will obviously be reflected in rising prices. There will certainly be a surge,” Dr Oppong said in an exclusive interview with the Business and Financial Times (B&FT) in Accra.

Dr Oppong explained that Ghana remains a net importer of petroleum products, bringing in more than 60 percent of its domestic requirements despite having some level of local production. He noted that this reliance on imports leaves the country highly exposed to fluctuations in international oil prices.

On why consumers should not entertain fears of potential shortages, he said the operationalisation of the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) and the Dangote Refinery, the largest in the region, should help curb any scarcity of refined petroleum products.

“Availability and accessibility may not be a problem for us, but affordability is the big question”.

His comments follow the opening of the first pricing window for March, which recorded a marginal increase in fuel prices across the board. The bi-weekly pricing window opened on March 1 and is set to close on March 15.

COMAC is projecting petrol prices to rise by 2.89 percent to about GH¢12.04 per litre, while diesel is expected to increase by 0.86 percent to approximately GH¢13.22 per litre.

However, LPG prices are forecast to decline slightly to GH¢13.87 per kilogram, the first reduction in 2026.

The hike, according to COMAC, is largely influenced by rising crude and petroleum product prices on the international market.

The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has also confirmed that the price floor for the March 1–15 pricing window has been raised, with petrol now selling at a minimum of GH¢10.46 per litre, up from GH¢10.24, while diesel has increased to GH¢11.42 per litre.

These adjustments represent increases of approximately 2.1 percent for petrol and 0.7 percent for diesel.

However, industry experts have warned that these increases may be only a precursor, with steeper hikes expected in the second half of March as the conflict between US–Israeli forces and Iran continues to ripple through global energy markets.

Brent crude prices surged more than 10 percent in early trading on March 2, reaching US$80.11 per barrel. Analysts say the global benchmark could climb to US$90 in the coming days if the conflict persists.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would further exacerbate the situation. Around 20 percent of the world’s crude oil passes through this narrow waterway, whose future is now uncertain.

The Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been attacking oil tankers in the region, targeting three US and British vessels in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. These attacks, combined with the potential spread of the conflict across the region, have further heightened concerns over supply disruptions.

Dr Oppong highlighted the impact on energy markets, noting, “Qatar has also halted natural gas production after being targeted by bombings. A major refinery with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day has been shut down, and it is unclear when operations will resume.

This shows that a key supply link has been disrupted, which will drive up demand for diesel and petrol as supplies are constrained”.

Corroborating Dr Riverson Oppong, the CEO of the African Sustainable Energy Centre, Justice Ohene-Akoto, warned of four potential price hikes in the coming days and weeks. “Missiles have struck some OPEC countries, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. If these tensions escalate further, global oil prices are likely to soar,” he said.

He added that the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria could serve as a potential regional buffer. However, he cautioned against expecting lower prices, noting, “Dangote will not sell at a discount just because you are neighbours. Premium prices will still apply”.

Limited processing and storage capacity

The COMAC CEO further lamented the country’s limited local refining capacity and storage infrastructure. “If Ghana had a large refinery, it would be a game-changer, allowing us to even export and earn more foreign exchange, not to mention resolving availability issues,” he said.

He urged the government to consider temporary tax relief measures to protect consumers, recommending the suspension or reduction of the Price Stabilisation and Recovery Levy (PSRL) to cushion the impact of rising fuel costs.

“If prices increase, the government should consider removing certain levies or implementing measures to ease the burden on consumers,” he concluded.