Fitch Solutions has projected that the Bank of Ghana is likely to maintain the monetary policy rate at 28% as it holds an emergency Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday, July 17, 2025.

According to the firm, this is despite improving economic indicators, especially inflation, which currently stands at 13.7%.

Fitch’s research division, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, said BoG officials are likely to wait for firmer evidence of sustained disinflation before initiating a rate-cutting cycle.

It noted that the central bank will initiate a policy easing cycle in September, with a cumulative 200 basis-point cut expected by year-end, bringing the rate down to 26%.

The firm also observed that the recent disinflationary trend increases the likelihood of an earlier rate cut.

“Given the sharp drop in inflation combined with robust reserves and muted global energy prices, we cannot rule out a rate cut in July,” Fitch added.

It said the rate may be revised by early September, considering the speculated easing in inflationary pressures.

Fitch Solutions said Ghana currently holds the highest real policy rate globally, at 14.3%, according to its latest outlook report.

It noted that the combination of slowing inflation, strong external buffers, and rising investor appetite for emerging market yields supports the case for imminent monetary easing.

SSD/AE

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