World fit warm beyond key 1.5C limit by 2027

Our overheating world dey likely to break a key temperature limit for di first time over di next few years, na so scientists predict.

Researchers say now, e get a 66% chance say we go pass di 1.5C global warming limit between now and 2027.

Chances dey rise due to emissions from human activities plus di El Niño weather event wey dey expected dis summer.

If di world pass di limit, scientists stress say di breach, even though e dey worry, go likely dey temporary.

To hit dat limit go mean say di world dey 1.5C warmer than e bin dey during di second half of di 19th Century, before fossil fuel emissions from industrialisation really begin go up.

Di 1.5C figure don become a symbol of global climate change negotiations. Kontries agree to "pursue efforts" to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C under di 2015 Paris agreement.

Going over 1.5C every year for a decade or two would see far greater impacts of warming, such as longer heatwaves, more intense storms and wildfires.

But passing the level in one of the next few years would not mean that the Paris limit had been broken. Scientists say there is still time to restrict global warming by cutting emissions sharply.

Since 2020 di World Meteorological Organisation don dey give an estimate of di chances wey di world dey take break di 1.5C limit in any one year.

Back then dem predict say e get less than 20% chance of breaking 1.5C in five years ahead.

By last year dis don increase to 50%, and now e don jump to 66%, and di scientists say dis mean say e dey "more likely than not."

Wetin going over 1.5C mean?

Di figure no be direct measure of world temperature but na indicator of how much or how little di Earth don warm or cool compared to di long term global average.

Scientists dey use average temperature data from di period between 1850-1900 as a measure of how hot di world bin dey before we begin depend on coal, oil and gas for dis modern times.

For decades, dem believe say if di world warm by around 2C, e go be di threshold of dangerous impacts - but for 2018 dem revise dis estimate, to show say going past 1.5C go dey very dangerous for di world.

Over di past few decades our overheating world don push mercury go up so tay for 2016, di warmest on record, global temperatures na 1.28C above di pre-industrial figure.

Now researchers say dat figure dey ready set to be smashed – as dem dey 98% sure say di high mark go dey broken before 2027.

And in di years between now and dat time, dem believe say e get a very solid chance say di 1.5C limit go dey surpassed for di first time.

"We really dey within reach to temporarily exceed 1.5C for di annual average temperature, and na di first time in human history we dey dat close," na so Prof Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasts for di Met Office, wey dey compile data from weather and climate agencies around di world tok.

"I think dat na perhaps di most stark and obvious and simplest statistic we get in di report," e tell one news conference.

Di researchers stress say temperatures go gatz stay at or above 1.5C for 20 years for dem to say dem don pass di Paris agreement limit.

However breaking di limit even for just one year na worrying sign say warming dey increase and e no dey slow down.

"Dis report no mean say we go permanently exceed di 1.5C level wey dey specified for di Paris Agreement and e refer to long-term warming over many years," WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas tok.

"However, WMO dey sound alarm say we go breach di 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency," he add.

Wetin be di difference El Niño go make?

Na two key elements - di first na di continuing high levels of carbon emissions from human activities wey despite a fall during di pandemic, still dey go up.

Di second critical part na di likely appearance of El Niño, a weather phenomenon with global implications.

For di last three years di world dey experience a La Niña event wey don dampen climate warming to some extent.

But di extra heat wey El Niño go bring to di surface of di Pacific go likely push di global temperature to a new high next year.

However, e get some uncertainty around di onset and scale of di event.

"E good to note say a lot of our forecasts wey we dey make now for di El Niño wey we think say dey develop dis winter, dey show pretty big amplitude," Prof Scaife tell tori pipo.

"But to actually predict di magnitude, or a subsequent event within di five-year period, we no fit give di exact dates of dat beyond dis one year ahead, so e fit be in three or four years from now wey we go get to two and a half degree El Niño and dat fit be di one wey go do am. "

Wetin be di likely impact for di UK and oda places?

Di Arctic go experience warming at a greater level than many regions, and di temperature anomaly dey expected to be three times as large as di global figure over di next five northern hemisphere winters.

Northern Europe including di UK go likely experience increased rainfall for di May to September period over di next five years, di report tok.