Why Russia dey cheer Burkina Faso coup

Di latest coup for Burkina Faso see young pipo dey wave Russia flags for di streets of di capital, Ouagadougou – sometin wey go don totori di hearts of pipo for Kremlin. Although na very few pipo, e make some dey wonder wether Russia bin get hand one kain for di events wey make Captain Ibrahim Traoré seize power for kontri wey jihadist violence wan finish. Yevgeny Prigozhin, na one oligarch wey dey close Russia President Vladimir Putin and di founder of Wagner Group - one mercenary organisation wey dey active for many Africa kontris – wey congralate di young military leader, wey im describe as "a truly worthy and courageous son of im motherland". "Di pipo of Burkina Faso bin dey under di yoke di colonialists, wey rob di pipo as well as play dia wicked games, train, support gangs of bandits and cause much pain to di local pipo." Here im also dey refer to former colonial power France - and di pipo wey dey welcome di coup for di West African kotri bin no only wave Russia flags but also attack French institutions, including di embassy. Di violence demonstrate di powerful bitterness wey former France colonies – kontris wey dem bin colonise – for Africa get against di French. For nearly ten years now, France bin dey try help armies for di Sahel region to tackle jihadist militants, some of which get link to al-Qaeda or Islamic State group. But recently e withdraw from neighbouring Mali, wey also be former colony, afta im relationship wit di military leader sour unto say im bin dey increasingly turn to Russia for aid to fight di militants. Sergei Markov, wey be former Kremlin adviser, bin dey clear wit im observations: "Our pipo help di new leader [of Burkina Faso]. "Anoda Africa kontri go move move from co-operation wit France to alliance wit Russia."  For geopolitical analyst Dr Samuel Ramani, dis no serious change from Russia usual response to political instability for di region. "For former coups Russia bin try to position imsef as one accidental beneficiary of regime changes," Dr Ramanai from di Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), a defence and security think-tank, and author of Russia in Africa, tok. "Dis time around Russia dey more active for dia support for di coup, and dat make epipo dey gossip say Russia get hand inside unto say e play co-ordinating role."  Dis point to Wagner Group, though Russia continue to deny say di mercenaries get any connection to di state and e no get evidence of direct Russia involvement.  Shortly afta e take over power, Capt Traoré make am clear say im wan to work wit new international partners to push back Islamist militant groups wey don dey active for di kontri since 2015.  Many assume say im mean di Russians. But since im focus na defeating di jihadists, im say im also dey ready to work wit di US or any oda kontri wey reay to help improve security for im kontri. US dey organise big annual counter-terrorism training exercise for kontris for West Africa evey year - though dis year, both Mali and Burkina Faso no show for Operation Flintlock. "I tink Burkina Faso want to avoid di trap wey Mali enta," says Dr Ramani, noting say Mali junta bin very hostile towards Europeans and di Americans since dem take power for 2020. "Now dem dey completely dependent on Russia wey don capture dem," he says. "Once Russia enta dis conflict areas dem no go fit get dem out. Di same tin happun for Central African Republic (CAR)." Wagner Group dey active for CAR since 2018 and dem dey accuse dem of human rights violations, including mass killings, torture, enforced disappearances and rape. Holding groups like Wagner accountable fit dey difficult, say Dr Sorcha MacLeod, associate professor for University of Copenhagen and chair of UN Working Group on di Use of Mercenaries. "Wen you get dis mercenary proxies dia, den di state fit involve in armed conflict, wihout being official party to di conflict. "And den you get plausible deniability… and of course dat get big implications wen e come to responsibility and accountability." On top of dat dia very presence fit prove counter-productive, she tok. "Wen dis kinds of actors enta armed conflicts, di conflict go prolong and greater risk of war crimes dey. "Di reality be say dis organisations no get any reason to bring conflict to an end. Dem dey financially motivated." US agree, say Russia mercenaries dey exploit natural resources for CAR, Mali and Sudan to fund Moscow war for Ukraine. For one harsh warning last week, US ambassador to UN say na heavy price for Africa to pay. "Rather dan be transparent partner and improve security, Wagner exploit client kontriswey dey pay for dia heavy-handed security services in gold, diamonds, timber, and oda natural resources – dis na part of Wagner Group business model," Linda Thomas-Greenfield tell UN Security Council briefing. "We sabi say dis ill-gotten gains dem dey use am to fund Moscow war machine for Africa, Middle East, and Ukraine." Dis fit all explain Capt Traoré's reluctance to put all of im eggs into Russia basket. "I tink Traoré dey try to hedge im bets and show say im fit try to balance all sides," say Dr Ramani. "But of course any co-operation wit Russia go almost certainly be death bell for France and for di West. American and Frenchno go fit co-exist wit Russians. "Dat na di confusion for Traoré - im side all di way wit Russia? Or im stand inbetween, and risk having no real external backer." Yet di anger wey young Burnikabés show say dealing wit jihadist threat must be di new junta leader priority. One regional leader observed dis week say Burkina Faso bin dey "on di brink of collapse" because of di insecurity. Even so, e still get questions about how effective Wagner fighters go dey for Burkina Faso. Although operatives from di group dey active for Mali for less than one year, early signs no dey look good as jihadist attacks dey increase and dem dey accuse dem of human rights abuses. Di kontri dey regain im place as di centre of Sahel crisis, recording di highest number of deaths from militant attacks so far for 2022. Furthermore, 2022 na di deadliest year for both Burkina Faso and Mali since di insurgency begin. "Wagner dey good at creating chaos. But as a fighting force e dey struggle, particularly for new and hostile terrain," say Dr Ramani. Still im believe say di juntas for di Sahel region fit choose to work wit Russian mercenaries since France fail to stop di spread of di violence. Plus Russia na much less demanding foreign ally or friend. "Dem dey see Russia as partner wey no dey interfere in terms of human rights and democracy," say Dr Ramani. "And e no dey try to impose im way of life on you - and dem dey see dat as very desirable for would-be autocrats and kleptocrats."