Wetin di withdrawal of French troops go mean for Niger?

France na im first blink wen dem wan pull dia 1,500 troops comot from Niger afta months of diplomatic standoff between Paris and di military junta wey seize power for July.

President Emmanuel Macron say dem take di decision becos di Niger junta no longer dey “interested in fighting terrorism” as dem continue to hold President Mohamed Bazoum, who im bin recognise as di “sole legitimate authority”, hostage.

Na strong strong animosity bin dey towards France since dem oust Mr Bazoum. Protester bin besiege di French military base and embassy for Niger capital Niamey.

Mr Macron also face pressure back home too. Di French parliament bin debate weda France need to reconsider dia operations for di Sahel.

Niger na di third former French colony for di Sahel wey go experience a military coup and ask make French troops comot dia kontri since 2020. Dis follow di similar situations for neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso.

Coup leaders don take advantage of di anti-French grievances wey don dey linger on since di colonial era and how e rub France post-colonial relations for di region.

For Niger, na one allegation say President Mohamed Bazoum na puppet for French interests dem use defend im removal from power. Na five military deals wit France di junta wey dey led by Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani don revoke.

Di power of di junta anti-French position make am impossible for French troops to remain for Niger, one sabi pesin for Africa Sahel region Bram Posthumus tok.

“Dia hand don dey forced, but dis na face-saving measure. E suppose happun anyway. But di French need to ensure say na dem take di initiative, not di junta for (Niger capital) Niamey,” e tok.

Many for Niger don dey vex for France hard-line stance against di military takeover.

Dem say e no rhyme wit France reaction to di recent violent to overthrow goment for central African Gabon and to di coup for Chad, wey be anoda former French colony, in 2021.

Dis lack of consistency dey drive anti-French bitterness across Niger, according to Abdoulaziz Abdoulaye Amadou, one Muslim cleric for di capital Niamey.

“Why Emmanuel Macron come dey say im no recognise our authorities? Wen im don recognise juntas for oda kontris like Gabon and Chad. Na wetin don make us vex be dat, and we think say France dey look us as idiots,” e tok.

French force don base for Niger to lead di international fight against Islamist insurgencies for di Sahel region.

But, despite considerable funding and high troop numbers, di French-led response don fail, and many territories dey controlled by extremists.

While France military intervention never dey successful to reduce di threats of jihadist attacks, e fit don bring some stability to di region, Bram Posthumus tok.

Last year, terror-related deaths for Niger bin fall by 79 per cent. While e no dey clear how much di French military presence help, observers fear say political instability fit affect dis progress.

For Mali and Burkina Faso, di military junta wey dey in control now dey preoccupied wit regime protection and, as a consequence, dem don face increased violent attacks. Observers dey fear say similar situation fit unfold for Niger.

Niger don already see an increase in attacks against army and civilian installations across di kontri for di weeks after di coup, especially for di Tillabéri region wey dey close to di border wit Burkina Faso.

Di departure of di French troops bin create a vacuum wey ginger insurgents and other non-state armed groups to fill, Mr Posthumus tok.

“Wetin you see for Mali na wetin you go see for Niger becos di armies wey dey dia no dey up to strength in terms of defending di whole of dis big kontris,” e tok.

Di inability to defend dis territories go likely affect mining activities, especially for di hinterland.

Over di last ten years, only Kazakhstan (27%) import more uranium into France dan Niger (20%). Di radioactive metal dey power di nuclear energy wey dem dey use to generate 70% of France electricity grid.

Yet, fears say dis supply flow fit be on di line dey at rest earlier dis month.

French nuclear na im dey fuel di company Orano, formerly known as Areva, wey dey operate mine for Niger northwest town of Airlit. Dem tok say dia operations go continue, despite di situation for Niger.

Di junta fit renegotiate di deals around uranium mining, Mr Posthumus tok. E add say di beneficiaries of dat kain alliances fit be di political elite rather dan ordinary citizens.

Ogbonge wealth in oil and uranium never translate to prosperity for Niger wey get 25 million pipo. Over 40% dey live for poverty and di kontri ranks 189th among 191 kontris in di 2022 United Nations Human Development Index.

Meanwhile, unlike for Mali and Burkina Faso wia dem ask all foreign troops to leave, Niger never asked im contingent of more dan 1,000 US troops make dem comot.

E make di possibility of Niger junta becoming padi padi wit Russia less. Although dem don sign military pacts wit im Russia-friendly comrades for Mali and Burkina Faso.

Sabi pipo say reducing French influence for Niger fit no get straightforward benefit for political stability.

For decades to come, new military leaders fit just cite di need to comot a “malign Russian influence” from dia kontris to justify dia takeover.