Niger coup: Test for democracy inside West Africa

President Bola Tinubu, wey be Nigeria leader see di coup for Niger as litmus test for democracy in West Africa.

Since e become di chairman of di regional bloc Ecowas three weeks ago, na di coup for Niger greet am welcome.

Oga Tinubu bin raise concern about di coups for Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea wen e become Nigeria president for May, e say Ecowas need strengthen dia regional force to stop further coups, and dem need to fight di militants.

So wen President Mohamed Bazoum presidential guards overthrow am last week, e quickly respond as e arrange one summit of West African leaders for im presidential villa on Sunday.

Di regional bloc bin agree to impose sanctions on Niger.

Dis don lead to electricity blackouts for Niger capital Niamey and for oda major cities, as Nigeria don cut off supplies, according to Niger power company.

Ecowas don also give ultimatum to Niger junta – to handover power back to di elected president within one week or Ecowas go take "all measures necessary to restore constitutional order".

"Such measures fit include di use of force" and military chiefs go meet "immediately", dia statement add

Although oga Tinubu victory for di February presidential election dey shake as opposition candidates dey challenge am for di court. Dem claim say e rig di election.

Oga Tinubu see imself as democrat wey take part for di campaign against military rule for Nigeria for di 1980s.

"I tink say e see dis [coup] as insult to im democratic credentials, especially at a time wen e hold di chairmanship of Ecowas," Wole Ojewale, one Nigerian analyst wit di Institute for Security Studies (ISS) tok.

Wetin make am hard pass na say di coup get direct bearing on Nigeria. Di two kontris dey share one border wey stretch for more dan 1,500km (930 miles), and dem get strong cultural and trade ties wey go as far back to di pre-colonial era wen one part of di two kontris bin dey part of Sokoto caliphate.

Dia security also dey connected. Militant Islamist group Boko Haram don carry out attacks for both kontris. Sojas from Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon collabo to fight dem. Di force "strategic and technical partners" include di UK, US and France, US and France get military bases for Niger.

Niger account for about 4% of global uranium output for 2022, na di world seventh largest producer of uranium and di highest-grade uranium ore for Africa.

Ecowas and dia Western partners no go want make di radioactive material – wey dem dey use for both civilian and military settings - fall into di wrong hands for region where militant Islamists dey active and for where Russia and di Wagner mercenary group dey expand dia influence.

Afta dia coups, Mali and Burkina Faso don turn towards Russia, and di junta for Niger dey give di impression say dem fit move go di same direction.

Chad leader Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno – wey di army of im kontri put for power afta rebel forces kill im father for 2021 – bin go Niger on Sunday to tok to di junta to obey Ecowas ultimatum.

Chad no be member of di regional bloc, but Oga Déby bin attend di meeting dem hold on Sunday.

As military strongman, dem put am fordia to strike deal wit di coup leaders and to tok to dem to step down.

But di junta so far don refuse.

Instead, e bone di West and Ecowas, and thousands of dia supporters bin enta streets for Niger capital, Niamey, on Sunday to back di coup. Some of dem bin attack di French embassy and wave pro-Russian flags.

But e no clear weda di military takeover get majority support for Niger - more dan half of dia citizens bin dey okay wit di way democracy take dey work for dia kontri, according to one 2022 survey wey respected research group Afrobarometer carry out.

Di juntas for Mali and Burkina Faso don warn Ecowas against military intervention for Niger, e say e go be "declaration of war" and dem go defend dia fellow coup leaders. So military intervention fit blow into full-scale conflict.

However, Ecowas bin don previously send sojas go plenty kontris – wey include Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau and The Gambia - either to help end civil wars, reinstate deposed presidents or to force out leaders wey refuse to accept electoral defeat.

Dis interventions dey in accordance wit dia mandate to maintain "peace, stability and security within di region", though dia sojas also chop accuse say dem involve in some cases of human rights abuses.

Oga Ojewale no dey sure weda di bloc get di military capability to intervene for Niger - - especially wen many of di kontris wey dey close to am, including Nigeria, dey face dia own security challenges.

"Di little resources dem get fit don reduce well-well," e tok.

Di analyst believe say di fight-fight between di two sides fit become "zero-sum game", and worsen di humanitarian crisis for di region.

"Casualties go dey as pipo go dey caught for di crossfire," e add say diplomatic resolution to di crisis go dey beta.

Questions also dey about di safety of di president dem remove, di junta dey hold am captive.

Anoda analyst, Jaafar Abubakar, argue say e fit become "bargaining chip" in di event of military confrontation between Ecowas and di junta.

"Na for [di junta] best interest to keep [Mr Bazoum] alive and well," e tok. "If dem kill am, dem go become all-out rebels wit no form of legitimacy."