Mece ce makomar ƙungiyar Wagner da Rasha bayan mutuwar Prigozhin?

Daga Mali zuwa Jamhuriyar Afirka ta Tsakiya, ƙasashen da mayaƙan Wagner ke aiki a cikinsu za su yi taka-tsantsan game da mutuwar shugabanta Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Akwai dubban mayaƙan na Wagner a wasu ƙasashen Afirka, a wani yunƙurin Rasha na faɗaɗa tasirinta a nahiyar. Yanzu lamarin zai ƙara jawo tambayoyi bayan hatsarin jirgin da ya ritsa da Prigozhin a Rasha ranar Juma'a.

Hatsarin ya faru ne jim kaɗan bayan Prigozhin ya bayyana a wani bidiyo yana iƙirarin cewa ya je yankin Sahel don yaƙar masu iƙirarin jihadi na al-Qaeda da Islamic State.

A ranar Lahadi jami'an Rasha suka ce an tabbatar da mutuwar Yevgeny Prigozhin bayan an yi wa gawarwakin mutanen da ke cikin jirgin gwajin ƙwayoyin halitta

Tawagar masu binciken sun ce gwajin da suka yi wa gawarwaki 10 da ke cikin jirgin, ya yi dai dai da na sunayen fasinjojin ke cikin jirgin.

Tuni mutuwar tasa ta fara jawo raɗe-raɗi game da makomar Rasha da Wagner a Afirka.

Me zai faru yanzu?

Me zai faru da harkokin tsaro a Afirka?

Mali da Afirka ta Tsakiya sun dogara sosai a kan mayaƙan na Wagner, waɗanda ake zargi da ƙulla alaƙar kasuwanci ba bisa doka ba kuma mai gwaɓi don ba da tsaro.

Tun daga 2018, mayaƙan ƙungiyar suka shiga ƙasar ta Afirka ta Tsakiya don yaƙar 'yan tawaye da suka ƙwace yankuna masu yawa na ƙasar da ke da arzikin lu'ulu'u.

Shugaba Faustin-Archange Touadéra ne ya gayyace su, wanda tun daga lokacin ake ganinsa tare da masu gadi 'yan Wagner a matsayin masu ba shi tsaro.

Su ma sojojin mulkin Mali sun ɗauki sojojin hayar Wagner 1,000 don taimaka wa ƙasar yaƙar 'yan bindigar IS da al-Qaeda.

Tun daga wannan lokaci Mali ta ƙara shaƙuwa da Rasha., inda ta yanke hulɗa da Faransa mai dakaru aƙalla 5,000 a yankin tsawon shekara 10. Sannan ta umarci dakarun Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya 13,000 su fice daga ƙasar.

Idan mutuwar Prigozhin ta jawo ficewar sauran mayaƙan Wagner daga yankin, akwai yiwuwar ayyukan masu iƙirarin jihadi za su ƙaru.

Amma masana na cewa da wuya su janye.

"Ta yiwu Prigozhin ya mutu, amma sana'arsa tana nan," a cewar Dr Sean McFate, farfesa a fannin tsare-tsare a jami'ar Georgetown’s Syracuse University.

"Tana samun kuɗi sosai. Wani daga cikin ƙungiyar zai yunƙura don ya yi aiki tare da Shugaba Putin."

Me zai faru da Rasha a Afirka?

A jawabinsa na biyu a taron ƙungiyar ƙasashe ta Brics, Shugaba Vladmir Putin ya jaddada aniyarsa cewa Rasha za ta ci gaba da tallafa wa Afirka wajen kawo ƙarshen matsalolin da suka fi damunta.

Ya tuna wa masu sauraronsa kyautar da Rasha ta yi wa ƙasashen Afirka shida ta hatsi tan 25,000 zuwa 50,000, waɗanda suka haɗa da Mali, da Zimbabwe, da kuma Afirka ta Tsakiya.

Rasha na amfani da Wagner wajen ƙara nuna ƙarfin ikonta a Afirka yayin da take yunƙurin zarta ƙasashen Yamma.

Wasu na ganin kashe shugaban zai sa Rasha ta sake lale wajen neman gindin zama a nahiyar.

Duk da haka wasu na cewa reshen ƙungiyar na Afirka zai iya ci gaba da ayyukansa ba tare da shugabanta ba.

Dr McFate, wanda kuma shi ne marubucin littafin The Modern Mercenary: Private Armies and What They Mean for World Order - game da sojojin haya da kuma yadda za su shafi ƙasashe duniya - ya faɗa wa BBC cewa tsarin kasuwancin da Prigozhin ɗin ya gina zai iya ɗorewa ba tare da shi ba.

"Babu abin da zai sauya saboda tsarin kasuwancin da Prigozhin ya gina zai ci gaba a can," a cewarsa, yana mai ƙarawa da Prigozhin ya tsara yadda wani zai iya ci gaba da gudanar da harkokin.

Me zai faru da ayyukan Wagner a Afirka?

Babu tabbas game da wanda zai maye gurbin Prizgozhin a matsayin shugaban Wagner.

Masu sharhi na ganin ƙungiyar za ta sauya yayin da take ci gaba da ayyukanta. Ƙila kuma ta koma aiki a ɓoye kamar yadda ta yi kafin yaƙin Ukraine.

Dr McFate ya ce sabon tsarin shugabanci da zai yi biyayya ga Fadar Kremlin, shi ne za a ƙirƙira.

Ya ce mayaƙan Wagner a Afirka akasarinsu tsofaffin mambobin ƙungiyar ne da suka samu horo tun kafin fara yaƙin Ukraine. Sun samu kuɗi sosai daga yarjejeniyar haƙar ma'adanai a nahiyar.

"Sun zaɓi su ci gaba da zama saboda sun fi samun kuɗi a Afirka," in ji shi.

"Sojojin haya na mutunta sana'arsu sosai."

Ya ƙara da cewa "ba mamaki mu ga wasu daga cikin mayaƙan sun ɓalle don kafa nasu ƙungiyoyin sojan hayar".

Hakan zai jawo ƙaruwar sojojin haya a yankin wanda kuma zai ta'azzara rashin kwanciyar hankali, ƙaruwar take haƙƙi da kuma zalinci game da ma'adanai.

Ko ma dai me zai faru, Rasha ce za ta fi amfana, da shugabannin Wagner, da kuma sojojin mulki a Afirka, in ji Dr McFate.

Da wuya gama-garin 'yan ƙasa su ga wani alfanu, kuma hakan zai jawo ƙaruwar rikice-rikice nan gaba.