Barazanar yaƙin Iran da Isra'ila ya ɗauki sabon salo mai hatsari

Barazanar yaƙi tsakanin manyan abokan gaba biyu a Gabas Ta Tsakiya, Iran da Isra'ila da suka ɗaɗe suna yi wa juna da alama yanzu sun zafafa.

Iran ta zargi Isra'ila da kai mata hari a ƙarshen mako, wanda ya lalata cibiyarta ta makamashin uranium a Natanz.

Isra'ila ba ta fito ta yi iƙirarin harin ba wanda Iran ta kira "zagon ƙasa" amma Amurka da kafofin yaɗa labaran Isra'ila sun ambato wasu jami'ai na cewa hukumar leƙen asirin Isra'ila Mossad ce ta kai harin.

Iran ta sha alwashin ɗaukar fansa "a lokacin da ta zaɓa."

Wannan ba sabon abu ba ne. Al'ada ce ta adawa da juna da tsarin ƙasashen biyu na idan ka ce kule na ce cas, yayin da suke ƙara ƙaimin yaƙi duk da suna taka tsan-tsan - zuwa yanzu - don kauce wa duk wani rikici wanda zai zama babbar illa ga kasashen biyu.

Don haka, mene ne haɗarin a nan kuma ta yaya za a kawo ƙarshen wannan?

Wannan 'barazanar yaƙin' za a iya raba ta zuwa kashi uku.

Shirin nukiliyar Iran

Isra'ila ba ta yi imani da iƙirarin Iran ba cewa shirin nukiliyarta ba ya da wani hatsari ga kowa. Isra'ila ta yi imanin cewa Iran na shirin mallakar makaman nukiliya a sirrance da kuma samar da makaman ƙare dangi.

A ranar Litinin lokacin da yake ganawa da Sakataren Tsaron Amurka Lloyd Austin a ziyarar da ya kai, Firaministan Isra'ila Benyamin Netanyahu ya ce: "A yankin Gabas Ta Tsakiya, babu wata barazana mafi tsanani da hatsari fiye da barazanar da gwamnatin kishin addini ke yi a Iran.

Haka kuma a ranar Litinin, jakadan Isra'ila a London, Tzipi Hotovely ya shaida wa BBC cewa: Iran ba ta taɓa dakatar da shirinta ba na mallar makaman nukiliya da ƙare dangi, kuma burin Iran na mallakar makaman nukiliya.. babbar bazarana ce ga duniya.

Da wannan tunanin, Isra'ila ta daɗe tana aiwatar da wasu ayyuka a ɓoye, domin ragewa da kuma gurgunta shirin nukiliyar Iran.

Wannan ya haɗa da yin kutse da dasa bairus ɗin Stuxnet a kwamfuta, wanda aka fara ganowa a 2010, wanda ya gurgunta aikin Iran.

Farkon wannan ƙarnin masana kimiyyar Iran da dama sun mutu a yanayi na ban mamaki sannan a watan Nuwamban 2020 aka yi wa Mohsen Fakhrizadeh kisan gilla a Tehran.

Baya ga kasancewarsa jagoran masana kimiyyar nukiliyar Iran kuma yana riƙe da babban muƙami a dakarun juyin juya halin Musuluncin na Iran, sannan Isra'ila ta yi imanin cewa shi ne wanda ke jagorantar ɓangaren 'soja' na shirin nukiliyar Iran.

Shirin yanzu ya kai wani mataki mafi hatsari.

A 2015 Iran ta sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar nukiliya ta haɗin gwiwa wadda ta bayar da damar ɗage wa ƙasar takunkuman da aka ƙaƙaba mata da nufin ita kuma ta amince a yi bincike kan shirinta.

Amma a 2018 Shugaba Donald Trump ya fitar da Amurka daga yarjejeniyar, tare da ƙaƙaba wa Iran sabbin takunkumi, wanda ya saɓa wa sharuɗɗan yarjejeniyar, musamman ƙarfafa makamashin Uranium - makamashin da ake amfani da shi wajen samar da makamashin nukiliya ko kuma makamai da aka haramta.

Shugaba Joe Biden na son dawo da Amurka a yarjejeniyar amma idan Iran ta amince ta mutunta yarjejeniya. Amma Iran yanzu na cewa: "a'a ba mu yarda ba, mu fara gani a ƙasa. Za mu mutunta sharuɗɗan amma idan an ɗage takunkumai."

Don ƙoƙarin karya wannan yanayin, masu sasantawa daga ƙasashe da dama sun yi taro a Vienna. Amma Isra'ila ba ta yi amannar cewa yarjejeniyar nukiliyar ta cancanci a sake farfaɗo da ita ba kamar yadda take a yanzu ba.

Dr Michael Stephens, wani masani kan Gabas ta Tsakiya tare da cibiyar bincike ta London United Royal Institute (RUSI), ya ce ayyukan da Isra'ila ta yi kwanan nan wani ganganci ne na yin zagon kasa ga tattaunawar nukiliyar.

"Isra'ila na ƙoƙarin yin zagon ƙasa ga shirin Nukiliyar Iran ne ta bangare guda, ta yadda duk da cewa suna da ƙarfi, amma mataki ne mai hatsari.

"Da farko, wadannan ƙoƙarin na Isra'ila na iya lalata matsayin tattaunawar Amurka yayin da take neman sake shiga yarjejeniyar nukiliya da Iran.

"Amma abu na biyu shi ne Iran na neman yadda za ta rama, ta hanyar hari ga manufofin Isra'ila a duniya. Isra'ila ta nuna za ta iya wargaza shirin Iran, amma ta wace hanya?"

Sufurin ruwa

Abubuwan ban mamaki sun faru a teku kwanan nan. A farkon wannan shekarar aka lalata wani jirgin dakon kaya mallakar Isra'ila, MV Helios, yayin da yake kan hanyar Tekun Oman.

An tsaga jirgin ta hanyar gina ramuka a jirgin kuma Isra'ila ta zargi dakarun IRGC na Iran, zargin da Iran ta musanta.

A watan Afrilun da ya gabata, wani jirgin ruwan Iran a Kudancin Bahar Maliya, ya samu matsala. Isra'ila da kawancen da Saudiyya ke jagoranta a Yemen da ke kusa sun yi imanin cewa Saviz ya kasance a matsayin "Babban jirgi" ga ƴan tawayen Houthi Yemen da Iran ke mara wa baya.

An ga bindigogi da kuma wasu na'urorin zamani a cikin jirgin amma Iran din ta ce yana can ne don neman zaman lafiya, tare da zargin Isra'ila da kai harin.

Kafofin yaɗa labaran Amurka sun ce sama da watanni 18 dakarun Isra'ila sun yi ƙoƙarin kai wa jiragen ruwa 12 hari da ke kan hanyarsu zuwa Syria ɗauke da mai da makamai.

Syria da Lebanon

Ganin yadda Syria ke cikin yaƙi a kan iyakokinta a tsawon shekaru 10 ya karkatar da hankalin sojojin Isra'ila.

Yakin ya haifar da kwararar ƙwararrun sojojin Iran na IRGC da ke aiki da ƙungiyar Lebanon ta Hezbollah da ke samun goyon bayan Iran, domin taimaka wa shugaban Syria Bashar al-Assad.

Isra'ila da tana bayyana damuwa kan yadda Iran ke shigar da rokoki da makamai masu linzami zuwa yankunan da ke kusa da biranen Isra'ila kuma ta kai hare-hare da yawa ta sama kan sansanonin da aka ajiye makaman a Syria.

Kammalawa

Babban muhimman taken wannan barazanar yaƙin shi ne maƙura. Babu wani ɓangare da zai yarda ya nuna rauni kamar Iran da Isra'ila sun san dole su yi taka tsan-tsan da ayyukansu don kada su abka yaƙi.

A ɓangaren nukiliya a bayyane yake cewa leƙen asirin da Isra'ila ke yi ya samu kutsawa cikin farfajiyar tsaron Iran tare da tura mutane masu leƙen asiri da kuma makamai na intanet domin gurgunta matakan Iran.

A ɓangaren sufurin ruwa kuma, Isra'ila tana da rauni ta la'akari da yanki. Tana da damar kutsawa ta Bahar maliya ta hanyar tashar ruwanta amma a sararin ruwan Iran ta fi ta mamaya, saboda yawan ruwanta da kuma ƙarfin da ta ƙara sakamakon ƴan tawayen Houthi a Yemen.

A Syria da Lebanon, Iran tana da zaɓi na amfani da aminanta domin ƙaddamar da hari kan Isra'ila amma kuma akwai hatsari. Isra'ila ta fayyace girman martanin da zata yi da kuma inda za ta kai harin: a Iran.

"Abin takaici ga Iran, babbar abokiyar kawancenta na ƙoƙarin kai wa Isra'ila hari ita ce Hezbollah amma hakan na iya zama wani yunƙuri da zai ƙazance wanda zai iya sa Hezbollah cikin yakin da Iran ke son kaucewa.

Iran ta fi dama amma da Isra'ila an fi ta ƙarfi. Isra'ila tana da makamai masu cin dogon zango kuma lokacin da ta yanke shawarar kai hare-hare ba kakkautawa, kamar yadda ta saba yi a Syria, ba sauki."