Lazarus Chakwera rose to power in Malawi dramatically five years ago after winning a court-ordered repeat election. But those the former preacher beat in the poll have ramped up their campaigns to pose the biggest challenge to his re-election bid.

Now, the talk of the town is whether the twanging cleric will face a ‘Wantam’ moment, a corrupted phrase meaning ‘one term’ that is mainly used by Kenyans politics to refer to politicians who struggle to win back their seats.

In Malawi, the presidential elections are scheduled for September 16, with Chakwera facing two former presidents and his own deputy in polls where the economy has taken centre stage.

In June 2020, Chakwera made history when he defeated incumbent Peter Mutharika with 58.57 percent of the vote after the courts ordered a repeat of the presidential election held a year earlier, citing vote tampering.

The 70-year-old former pastor’s first term in office, however, has been marred by corruption scandals, economic malaise characterised by foreign currency and fuel shortages, as well as food deficits attributed to natural disasters.

Some observers and opinion polls are placing the man he defeated in the last polls, Prof Mutharika, 85, ahead of him with elections about a month away.

According to the latest survey by the Institute of Public Opinion and Research (Ipor) conducted between July 6 and 20, the former president and his opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are likely to get 43 percent of the vote while the incumbent and the ruling Malawi Congress Party (MCP) could get 26 percent.

The Ipor poll shows that no candidate is likely to meet the 50 percent-plus-one vote threshold to avoid a second round of voting. But this poll is consistent with others in the past year, in which President Chakwera has been faring poorly.

Michael Chasukwa, Ipor director for training and research, said the outcome of the opinion polls showed that the election will be issue-based, as shown by the majority’s strong desire to give Prof Mutharika a chance despite his advanced age.

On the campaign trail, Mutharika who led his country from 2014 to 2020, has been pledging to “rescue” the country from political and economic hardship.

“What is most striking is Peter Mutharika’s strong showing among young voters, with 50 percent of those aged 18 to 35 saying they support him,” Prof Chasukwa said. “This suggests that concerns about his age may not be translating into lost support among the youth.”

Another formidable challenge is Malawi’s first female president Joyce Banda.

Dr Banda, 74, an educator and women’s rights activist, became president in 2012, stepping up from vice-president after the death of then incumbent Bingu wa Mutharika, Peter Mutharika’s brother.

She launched this year’s campaign on August 3 in the central town of Ntcheu, where she pledged to prioritise youth empowerment and job creation, a direct appeal to the constituency of young people who feel disillusioned by the president’s handling of the economy.

President Chakwera’s deputy Michael Usi also entered the race this week after submitting his nomination papers to the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC).

Mr Usi, who became vice-president last year after the death of Saulos Chilima in a plane crash, will represent the newly formed Odya Zake-Alibe Mlandum party, which was formed by rebels from UTM party, a member of the governing coalition.

On Tuesday, MEC said 17 candidates had been cleared for the presidential race.

Despite the odds stacked against him, President Chakwera insists that his re-election is not in doubt.

Mr Chakwera told his supporters at the launch of his re-election campaign on July 26 in the Southern Region that the Malawi Congress Party has strong structures on the ground and “my leadership is providing solutions to the national development gaps”.

“I have confidence that I still have your support to continue with the development projects,” he said.

Political analysts say the economy is at the heart of this year’s election, with voters increasingly becoming concerned about fuel shortages, currency volatility and rising inflation.

The country’s agriculture-based economy has become vulnerable to climate-induced disasters such as floods and droughts.

President Chakwera’s administration has been forced to introduce austerity measures, such as banning foreign travel for the President and his Cabinet, and rationing foreign currency. But these have has done little to provide relief to the economy, leading to widespread protests.

The government has also been accused of not doing enough to fight corruption despite a string of high-profile arrests and the dismissal of government ministers implicated in the vice.

Taz Chaponda, a former senior economist at the International Monetary Fund, said that going into the polls, Malawians would be worried about long and frequent fuel queues “snaking for kilometres”, rising prices, particularly for food, and dwindling foreign currency reserves resulting in widespread forex shortages.

Mr Chaponda said there were also widespread concerns about rising public debt driven by unsustainable borrowing, one of Africa’s highest fiscal deficits, low food reserves and continued electricity shortages, among other pressing economic problems.

“As with all elections, this one is supposed to usher in changes and make a difference or at least that is what all parties are promising,” he said. “But voters must be aware that the electoral outcome will not suddenly change the fast deteriorating state of our fragile economy.”

Malawi is ranked 174th out of 189 in the United Nations’ Human Development Index.

About three quarters of Malawi’s population of 21 million lives in extreme poverty, according to the World Bank.

More than 80 percent of its workforce is employed in the agriculture sector.

Malawi first held free elections 30 years ago after the death of long-time ruler Kamuzu Banda.

The country’s recent elections have been marred by allegations of vote rigging, but a 2019 Constitutional Court ruling was the first time the courts annulled results of a presidential election.

Ahead of the September 16 vote, human rights organisations have also been expressing fears of violence after a group of weapon-wielding men on June 26 attacked demonstrators that were protesting against the government’s handling of preparations for the elections.

Members of the Citizens for Credible Elections, a local NGO, took to the streets of the capital Lilongwe to call for an independent audit of the voters’ roll and the resignation of top MEC officials.

As the protests were going on, the group of men – some wearing masks and carrying sticks, heavy leather whips and large knives – attacked the demonstrators, injuring several of them, Human Rights Watch said.

The main opposition DPP party and civil society organisations claimed that the attackers had links to a youth militia aligned with the ruling MCP.

They accused the MCP of using fear and intimidation against citizens expressing themselves in the lead up to the crucial elections.

List of Malawi presidential candidates:

Dr Joyce Banda- People’s Party

Dr Lazarus Chakwera-Malawi Congress Party

Prof Arthur Peter Mutharika-Democratic Progressive Party

Dr Kondwani Nankhumwa-People’s Development Party

Thokozani Manyika Bana-Independent

Akwame Bandawe-AAA Party

Kamuzu Chibambo- People’s Transformation Party

Adil Chilungo- Independent

Cosmas Chipojola- Independent

Dr Dalitso Kabambe- UTM Party

Atupele Muluzi- United Democratic Front

Phunziro Mvula-Independent

Frank Mwenifumbo-National Development Party

Jordani Sauti- Patriotic Citizens Party

Smart Swira- Independent

Milward Tobias- Independent

Dr Michael Usi- Odya Zake party