Ghana have been handed a 0.2% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to tournament statistical model, Opta, placing the Black Stars among the least likely teams to lift football’s biggest prize.

The projection reflects Ghana’s status heading into the tournament as an underdog, despite a squad packed with some experienced internationals and emerging talents under head coach Carlos Queiroz.

The Black Stars are preparing for a difficult Group L campaign, where they will face England, Croatia and Panama, a group widely viewed as one of the toughest combinations in the tournament.

Despite the low probability, Ghana will take encouragement from their memorable 2010 run to the quarter-finals, including a 1-1 draw against Wales, which highlighted both resilience and areas that still require improvement ahead of the global showpiece.

I can never be like my father or Andre - Jordan Ayew


At the top of the global projections is Spain with a 16.23% chance of winning the tournament.

The reigning European champions head into the World Cup with one of the most exciting squads in world football.

France follow with 12.84%, powered by a fearsome attack featuring Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé, while England sit third at 10.92%, boasting depth across all positions despite debate over selection decisions.

Defending champions Argentina are ranked fourth at 10.12%, still inspired by Lionel Messi but facing concerns over fitness and consistency.

Portugal complete the top five with 7.18%, led by Cristiano Ronaldo and a strong supporting cast including Bruno Fernandes and João Neves.

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