Few rivalries in modern football have produced drama quite like the recent clashes between Real Madrid and Manchester City.

Since 2020, their meetings in the UEFA Champions League have delivered stunning comebacks, crushing victories, and one strange pattern that continues to puzzle fans: the team that scores first often ends up losing the tie.

The pattern began in 2020 during the Round of 16. Real Madrid struck first through Isco at the Santiago Bernabéu, but City responded ruthlessly. Gabriel Jesus equalised before Kevin De Bruyne scored the winner.

City then won the second leg 2–1 in Manchester to secure a 4–2 aggregate victory.

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Two years later, the drama returned in the 2022 semi-finals. This time City scored first through De Bruyne and eventually won the first leg 4–3.

Yet the second leg produced one of the most famous comebacks in Champions League history.

Real Madrid scored twice late through Rodrygo, before completing the turnaround in extra time to win the tie 6–5 on aggregate.

In 2023, the pattern repeated. Madrid scored first in the first leg in Spain as the match finished 1–1, but City responded emphatically in the return leg with a dominant 4–0 win, advancing 5–1 on aggregate.

The 2024 quarter-finals followed a similar script. City struck first through Bernardo Silva.

But Madrid fought back to lead 2-1 on the night. City also staged a comeback to lead 3-2, but a late goal from Fede Valverde meant the first leg ended 3–3.

After a tense 1–1 draw in the second leg at the Bernabeu, Madrid edged the tie on penalties, winning the shootout 4–3.

Even in 2025, the trend held.

Erling Haaland gave City the early goal in the first leg at the Etihad, yet Madrid recovered to win 3–2 before sealing the tie with a 3–1 victory in the return match in Spain.

Now the story moves to 2026. Real Madrid hold a commanding 3–0 advantage in their Round of 16 tie against Manchester City ahead of the decisive second leg on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.

Ironically, Madrid were the team that scored first again, a detail that feeds into the bizarre trend that has followed this rivalry since 2020.

For City, the stakes could hardly be higher. With the Premier League title race slipping away, their focus has firmly shifted to the UEFA Champions League.

They travel into the match dreaming of another dramatic European night and hoping to produce the kind of comeback that has defined this rivalry in recent years.

Yet overturning a three-goal deficit against Real Madrid on the Champions League stage is a challenge few teams have ever managed.

If history between these two sides has shown anything, however, it is that the unexpected always seems possible.

The question now is whether the strange “score first and lose the tie” pattern will strike again, or whether this time Madrid’s commanding lead will finally break the curse.

FKA/JE

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